Appearance
Transitions: how customers move between segments
A transition happens when a customer moves from one segment to another. A move to a higher-value segment is an upgrade. A move to a lower-value segment is a downgrade. Open the tab from Insights > Customers > Transitions.
Problem and intended user
A retention marketer (the person who runs email and repeat-purchase campaigns) wants to catch a good customer who starts to slip before that customer is gone. An ecommerce manager (the person who runs the store) wants to know whether the customer base is improving or wearing down. A segment count on one day hides this movement.
Current workflow
A merchant who wants this view today saves a dated copy of the customer list, with each customer's group, in a spreadsheet. Later the merchant saves a second copy and compares the two, customer by customer, then counts who changed group. Unless someone keeps the old copies, the earlier state is lost.
Prerequisites
- Your store data is connected to Nexus.
- Your RFM segments are built.
- Some history. Nexus records a snapshot of your segments every night. The timeline needs those snapshots, so a new store shows an empty timeline until a few days have been recorded. The tiles, matrix and Notable Movements can show data sooner. Read While your data imports for the first days after setup.
How Nexus works
Nexus reads the moves between segments from your order and customer data. When its own nightly snapshots cover your date range, it reads them from the snapshots instead. Fixed rules count the moves, split them into higher and lower, and flag the unusual ones.
The history on the timeline comes from a daily snapshot that runs overnight. AI writes the AI Insights and Opportunities panels overnight. Nexus writes the panels only when customers moved between segments recently. Nexus saves the latest set. Viewing a set costs no credits.
You approve nothing. The tab only reads data. The action on an opportunity card is text only, and selecting it starts nothing.
Choose a period
Transitions is the only tab on the Customers page with a date range. The picker sits at the top right of the page.
- Select the date range. A list of presets opens, such as Last 7 days and Last 30 days, with a calendar for a custom range.
- Select Apply.
- Select D, W or M to group the timeline by day, week or month.
The default range is Last 30 days. Nexus keeps the range you pick when you move to other pages.
Follow one path on the timeline
To follow one path, use the two lists above the chart:
- Select a segment in Source: All to see customers who left that segment.
- Select a segment in Target: All to see customers who arrived in it.
- Select Clear to remove both choices.
The chart then shows one line for the pair you chose.
Add a note to the chart
Nexus does not save notes. They disappear when you leave the page.
- Select Annotate.
- Select a point on the chart.
- Type your note and select Save.
- Select Done when you finish.
Each note appears as a labelled line on the chart and as a chip below it. Select the X on a chip to remove the note.
Exact output
The tab shows the summary tiles, two AI panels, the timeline, the matrix and the Notable Movements table, in that order.
Summary tiles
| Tile | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Total Transitions | Customers who moved between segments in the period. |
| Positive Movements | The share of those customers who moved to a higher-value segment. |
| Negative Movements | The share who moved to a lower-value segment. |
| Anomalies | The number of unusual moves. A move is unusual when it is large compared with the segment it left, or compared with the other moves. |
Customers who stay in their segment are not counted.
AI Insights and Opportunities
Two panels sit under the tiles.
AI Insights lists short findings about how your customers move. Some carry a figure at the right of the text.
Opportunities lists cards that each name a segment. A card shows a title, a priority, the segment, the number of customers, Est. Revenue and a suggested action. They show the latest saved set, not a set made for the date range you picked.
Transition Volume Timeline
Transition Volume Timeline plots the total number of moves over time. With a Source or Target chosen, it shows one line for that pair.
Transition matrix
The matrix is a From \ To grid. Each row is the segment customers left. Each column is the segment they joined. Each cell shows how many customers made that move.
- A darker red cell means more customers made the move.
- A cell with no customers stays empty.
- Point at a cell to read the full move, the number of customers, and whether it is an anomaly.
- Point at a long segment name to read it in full.
Notable Movements
Notable Movements lists every move, largest first. Select a column header to sort. The Movement column does not sort.
| Column | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Movement | The segment the customers left, an arrow, and the segment they joined. |
| Count | The number of customers who made the move. |
| Rate | The share of the source segment that made the move. |
| Avg predicted revenue | An estimate of lifetime revenue, not profit, averaged over those customers. The column shows a dash for every move today. |
| Anomaly | ANOMALY marks an unusual move. A dash means the move is normal. |
What to do with it
| What you see | Decision or action | Owner |
|---|---|---|
| A high Negative Movements share, or a dark cell that ends in a low-value segment | Decide which customers to win back. Build the campaign in your email tool, outside Nexus. | Retention marketer |
| A row marked ANOMALY in Notable Movements | Check what happened in that period, such as a sale, a stock-out or a campaign. | Ecommerce manager |
| A high Positive Movements share, or a dark cell that ends in a high-value segment | Find what moved those customers up and decide whether to repeat it. | Ecommerce manager |
| An Opportunities card | Treat the suggested action as a prompt. Decide whether it fits your campaign calendar, then act in your email tool. | Retention marketer |
| A spike on Transition Volume Timeline | Select Annotate and note the campaign or event. | Retention marketer |
Expected value and measurement
Transitions can help you notice a slip in customer value, and see which campaigns coincide with customers moving up.
To check, open Insights > Customers > Transitions and pick two date ranges of the same length, one before a change and one after. Compare Positive Movements, Negative Movements and Total Transitions. Pick ranges that start after Nexus began to record history, so the timeline covers both in full.
Nexus cannot isolate the effect of one campaign. Other campaigns, sales and seasonal buying can run in the same period and move the same figures.
Limitations and exceptions
- History starts when Nexus started to record. Nexus cannot rebuild earlier days. When your range starts before the first record, a note gives the first date with data.
- Notes are not saved. They disappear when you leave the page.
- AI can be wrong. AI Insights and Opportunities are written by AI. Check a finding against the matrix and Notable Movements before you act on it.
Empty states and messages
| Message | What to do |
|---|---|
| No segment transitions in this period | Widen the date range, or try again later. The message can also appear when Nexus cannot read your store data for a moment. |
| No transition history yet (in the timeline panel) | Wait. The nightly snapshot has not produced rows yet. A new store shows an empty timeline until a few days have been recorded. |
| No AI insights yet and No opportunities surfaced yet | Wait. Nexus writes both panels overnight, and only when customers moved between segments recently. |
If your store data is not connected to Nexus or your RFM segments are not built, the Customers page shows a panel that says what it is waiting for, instead of this tab.
Demo Mode
In Demo Mode, this tab shows sample data for the demo store, not your customers.